New Jersey's work force lagging
For neighboring New York City, jobs growing at twice Garden State's rate
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
BY BETH FITZGERALD
Newark Star-Ledger Staff

New Jersey's employment growth should slow to 34,000 jobs in 2007 from 35,900 last year, while New York City is likely to create jobs at twice that rate even as the city also slows down a tad, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The region's economy is decelerating modestly in line with the nation, and the region "entered 2007 with good momentum," on the job-creation front, Fed Senior Economist Rae Rosen said yesterday during a conference call with reporters.

New York City's private sector job growth is slowing slightly to 1.7 percent from 2 percent last year, while New Jersey jobs should grow at less than half that rate, 0.8 percent, about flat with 2006. Compar ing February 2007 with the same month a year ago, New York City has added 11,200 securities indus try jobs, 6,300 accounting jobs, 7,200 jobs in the ambulatory health-care category, and 6,900 leisure and hospitality jobs.

The city's job growth creates opportunities for New Jerseyans, since almost 10 percent of the in come of residents of northern New Jersey is earned outside the state, Rosen said.

In New Jersey, private sector job growth in February compared with the previous year included ambulatory health care, 4,700 jobs; services to buildings, 4,200; limited service eating places, 3,200, securi ties industry, 2,300; computer systems, 2,000 and management, scientific and technology, 2,400.

The Fed predicted New Jersey will gain 8,200 government jobs this year, compared with 7,300 in 2006, while New York City is expected to lose 100 government jobs this year, compared with a loss of 200 in 2006.

New Jersey's unemployment rate in February was the lowest in the region at 4.1 percent, compared with 4.8 percent for New York City and 4.4 percent for New York State.

While New York City's economy is growing faster than New Jersey, "keep in mind that during the 2001 recession and after, there were huge job losses in New York City, but New Jersey did not get hit that hard," said Fed Economist Jason Bram. "New York City employment has not quite come back to where it was at the peak, and New Jersey employment is past that peak."

"New Jersey is growing a bit more slowly than New York City, but the fact that it is adjacent to New York bodes well," Rosen said. "New Jersey is a mature economy that is operating at a high level of activity."

"We have a regional economy, and jobs in New York City are available to the whole region, and that helps to explain why New Jersey's unemployment rate remains so low," Bram said.

Rutgers University economist Jim Hughes said the Fed forecast is an extension of the past three years, when New Jersey has averaged 33,000 jobs per year; the state has a total work force of about 4 million.

"For the past several years New York City has become the regional economic locomotive and that is the role New Jersey played from 1980 to 2000," Hughes said. "We're not the caboose, but we're cer tainly not pulling the region along."

Hughes said the Fed expects government jobs to grow 1.3 percent in New Jersey this year, outpacing the private sector's 0.8 percent employment gains. "This is the culture in New Jersey--people want high levels of government services," Hughes said.

Strong job growth in Manhattan is good for commuters from New Jersey, but it doesn't help New Jersey's fiscal situation, "be cause you pay taxes where you work, although these jobs do bring purchasing power back to New Jersey," Hughes added.